Notice anything missing from the financial pages over the last few days ? The normal flood of analyst forecasts for the next 12 months has this year been reduced to a trickle.
Asked by the Evening Standard to predict a target for Footsie at the end of 2009, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan were just some of the firms who declined to comment. Fairly obviously it is linked to what they predicted a year ago:
What brokers said a year ago: FTSE predictions for end of 2008
Lehman Brothers - 7300
Lewis Charles Securities - 7200
Gartmore - 7200
UBS - 6960
Hargreaves Lansdown - 6900
Capital Spreads - 6800
Seven Investment - 6413
One of the firms who did make a comment, Morgan Stanley, alongside its 2009 year-end prediction of 4300 for the FTSE-100 also quoted an extra 'bear case' 2500 figure and 'bull case' 6500 forecast. Thanks for that !
Over at Gartmore Investment, Phil Wagstaff said: "I would say 4600 seems likely. The next few months may well be difficult, with corporate earnings falling as the economy slows. But by the end of next year, we should be looking forward to an economic recovery."
One exception to the grey predictions comes from UBS, where analysts are sticking their necks out with a bullish year-end forecast of 5800 that factors in a share price recovery of nearly 40%. "2009 will bring signs of a dawn in confidence with the first faint light appearing earlier than most investors expect," said analyst David Bianco.
Few have commented to any significant degree on the fact the FTSE-100 has already recovered some 24% since it hit its low of 3665 on 27 October. Maybe the recovery has already begun but no-one wants to put their head above the parapet when they got it so badly wrong last year.